Predictive Modeling of Changes in TBARS in the Intramuscular Lipid Fraction of Raw Ground Beef Enriched with Plant Extracts

The aim of the study was to develop and compare the predictive models of lipid oxidation in minced raw beef meat enriched with selected plant extracts (allspice, basil, bay leaf, black seed, cardamom, caraway, cloves, garlic, nutmeg, onion, oregano, rosemary and thyme) expressed as value changes of TBARS (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) in various time/temperature conditions. Meat samples were stored at the temperatures of 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20 °C. The value changes of TBARS in samples stored at 12 °C were used as the external validation dataset. Lipid oxidation increased significantly with storage time and temperature. The rate of this increase varied depending on the addition of the plant extract and was the most pronounced in the control sample. The dependence of lipid oxidation on temperature was adequately modeled by the Arrhenius and log-logistic equation with high average R2 coefficients (≥0.98) calculated for all extracts. Kinetic models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to build the predictive models. The obtained result demonstrates that both kinetic Arrhenius (R2 = 0.972) and log-logistic (R2 = 0.938) models as well as ANN (R2 = 0.935) models can predict changes in TBARS in raw ground beef meat during storage.