Assessment of Cereal Self-sufficiency and Food Balance Projection in Afghanistan

Aims: Afghanistan is overwhelmed with food insecurity, thus severe food shortages in which a large percentage of the population lacks reliable access to food supplies. Cereals such as wheat, rice, and maize play a vital role in the country's food security due to their importance in terms of consumption and production quantity. This paper estimates cereal self-sufficiency and then makes a food balance forecast of the three major food crops - wheat, rice, and maize - cultivated in Afghanistan over six-decades (1979 – 2030).

Methodology: Descriptive statistics, ARIMA model, and coarse metric technique were employed to analyze the data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), United States Department of Agriculture PSD Database (USDA), and United Nations World Population Division databases to determine cereal self-sufficiency and food balance forecast.

Results Econometric analysis demonstrated that (1) Afghanistan is not yet self-sufficient in meeting grain consumption. (2) The production and consumption ratio declined from 0.9 to 0.55 from 1979 to 2030. (3) The gap of theoretical food imbalance will increase, and by the year 2030, cereal production will likely be sufficient for only 49.8 percentage of inhabitants, leaving a high shortage equivalent to the amount required by 24.4 million people. (4) Per capita cereal production will possibly decrease from 120.8 kg to 95.4 kg per person between 2018 and 2030.

Conclusion: By evaluating the quantitative food balance and the growing population change, this study presents an analysis of the emerging threat to Afghanistan's food security. Therefore, we recommended that the Afghanistan government should increase the size of public agricultural expenditure, improve the level of agriculture infrastructure, increase the cultivation area of cereals, and continue to introduce policy to achieve higher yield.